As with many apparently simple questions, the situation is more complex than it first appears to be. In this case the complications are at least two-fold. First, this study shows that the majority of prospective university students in Australia are motivated principally by field of study interests when they make their initial tertiary applications, confirming the findings of another recent investigation (Harvey-Beavis & Elsworth 1998). Ultimately, however, applicants must express these field of study aspirations by choosing particular courses at particular institutions. A person’s preferred tertiary course therefore represents a complex aggregate of his or her personal field of study interests, the perceived characteristics of the relevant course in the intended university, and the wider qualities of that institution. It is quite difficult methodologically to isolate and estimate the relative influences of these tightly enmeshed factors.

Second, with competitive entry to courses largely based on academic results, people’s decisions are significantly mediated (and constrained) by their academic achievements and their perceived capabilities. Perceptions of ‘self’ and attainability are strong influences in the choice of a field of study and of a particular course within that field. This point is well illustrated by the respondent to our survey who captured a typical applicant sentiment:

I chose this course as my No. 1 preference because I felt that my chances of being accepted were more realistic than at the more prestigious universities.

Perceptions of this kind are not formed solely during the application period, but are the result of many earlier experiences and ‘word-of mouth’ transmission of information. The obvious, but important, conclusion is that university preferences are not only based on course and institutional characteristics, such as teaching styles, graduate outcomes, location, amenities or prestige, but also reflect individuals’ perceptions of themselves and of their personal capacities. University applicants ‘estimate’ a feasible aspiration level. They assess the likely odds of acceptance against the potential benefits accrued from the prestige of a course or institution.

This study began with the assumption that the majority of prospective university students are interested around the time of application in a limited set of possible courses. This ‘preferred course set’ represents the courses that best match each individual’s personal interests, career objectives and judgment of attainability. The focus of the research was on determining how applicants select the course ranked first in this set of attractive courses. The study also examined the ways in which institutional factors figure in applicant thinking, particularly characteristics not specifically to do with the chosen course at the institution concerned.

We analysed the questionnaire responses of 937 applicants to the tertiary admissions centres in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia who were surveyed at the time of initial tertiary application in 1998. Of these applicants, 538 also responded to a second questionnaire after the release of offers in 1999. International students were not included.