11. Decisions at the time of offer

Of the original 937 respondents, 538 replied to an invitation to complete a small second questionnaire that was distributed in February 1999, after most applicants had received offers and settled on a course. The questionnaire focused on any changes in decision—or indecision—in the period between the initial application and prior to offer, and the reasons for these changes. It also asked applicants about their decision-making made on the basis of the actual offer and the reasoning behind it. Of the 538 respondents to the second survey, 433 were school-leavers. Among these, the academic results of 38 per cent were better than they had expected, 43 per cent were about what they had expected, and 18 per cent were below what they had expected.

A little over half the respondents (53 per cent) were offered and accepted their first preference. Even among these there were last minute doubts about the appropriateness of this preference. Of the sample, 29 per cent of those successful in being offered their first choice at some stage reconsidered and contemplated an alternative. In the main part this doubt appears to stem from a drop in confidence, either associated with having the capacity to see a long or academically tough course through to its completion, or to do with achieving the necessary entrance results:

Wasn’t sure if I’d get the mark to make it into the course. Had a sudden fear that I wasn’t suited to the course (but I overcome it) (somewhat).

Over one-third reported receiving better academic results than they had expected. For some this caused a reconsideration of their preferred course; however ultimately only 4 per cent of those who changed from their original preference (47 per cent of the sample overall) did so because of higher results than they had anticipated:

After I received my UAI, I was surprised at how well I went, so I changed my preferences, just to see if I would get in and then I’d decide what I’d do.

I was shocked at how high my UAI was so I was considering doing a course which had a higher cut-off mark, however I came to the conclusion that I was better off doing something I was interested in rather than something I may not enjoy.

This contemplated change is usually to a closely comparable course in another university. Many applicants clearly perceive an institutional hierarchy of some kind, one in which the implicit ranking of institutional prestige is closely associated with entry scores. As one student wrote, ‘My ENTER was better than I thought, so I considered going to a uni with a higher score’. And another:

I got a higher UAI than expected which enabled me to study at any university offering commerce. The Research University UAI was 94.1 and the University of Technology was 91.95. Therefore I thought Research University would be a better uni because the UAI was higher.

Other applicants are watchful of the decisions of other students in the ‘market’:

I was contemplating changing from Commerce/Engineering to Science/Engineering as other people who obtained a similar TER to myself were doing the Science double. Not many opt for commerce.

At the other end of the spectrum, 63 per cent of the applicants who changed preference did so because their academic results where not high enough to be offered their first preference, or, much less frequently, an interview had not led to their selection. For many this outcome was not unexpected, for it was a result of a degree of ‘brinksmanship’ in their initial application. In these cases the offer of second or third preference was usually a quite acceptable compromise: a similar course in a closely allied field. Rarely was the compromise in field of study—once again, gaining access to a preferred field was the central objective for the overwhelming majority—but more often involved acceptance of a less preferred course at another institution.

Overall, 47 per cent of applicants who did not get their first preference course indicated they had accepted a similar course in another university, while only 24 per cent reported enrolling in a different field of study in the university of their original preference.

People in this latter group sometimes opted for a related course at the same university. Quite a number of respondents indicated that accepting this second preference was a desirable outcome because they were aware of later year transfers into their original first preference course:

I chose a course in the same field of study at the same university because it will allow me to move into my 1st choice in my 2nd year, providing I pass first year.

The comments of students who accepted a similar course to their first preference course but at another university indicate that the compromise for them is often to do with location and transport (the university is further from home), with the status of the course/institution (the university is perceived as less prestigious), or with less flexibility in specific subject options within a roughly similar course.

Attending because it has the course I’m in, but it doesn’t seem to be very expansive or modern or appealing.

Metropolitan University offered the next best course. Has a friendly environment and has nice space.

A minority of applicants have fewer choices in the usual meaning of the word. These are the applicants who in the competitive allocation of places do not receive high enough academic results to be considered for the courses they would choose if entry were based solely on personal preferences. The following respondents offered these reasons for choosing the course they were finally offered:

Basically it was the only option I had left and I had to accept it instead of being left without a tertiary place.

... they accepted me.

Overall, 70 per cent of applicants who did not receive their first preference course indicated they were satisfied or very satisfied with their final outcome, including, for some, not entering tertiary study. Only 13 per cent of this group were clearly not satisfied with the choice they eventually made.

As Table 11.1 shows, applicants in their final stages of application and decision-making are most likely to draw on personal sources of advice, such as family, friends, and teachers, as well as the guides of tertiary admissions centres. The marketing activities of universities appear to affect the thinking of a relatively small number of applicants during the final stages.

Table 11.1 Applicants’ sources of information in 1999 and the extent of their influence

   

Extent of influence on users*

Information source

% of respondents who used source

Reason-ably strong influence (%)

Small influence or no influence
(%)

Family and/or friends

71

47

18

Tertiary Admission Centre guides

55

55

18

University web sites

26

22

60

Newspaper advertisements placed by universities

12

8

74

Newspaper articles and supplements

18

14

63

Commercial guides, e.g. The Good Universities Guide, C/wealth Bank STUDYLINK CD-ROM

13

24

63

Telephone hotlines to universities

15

22

65

Careers teachers and other teachers (school-leavers only)

53

53

22

Note: * 5 point scale
5=strong influence to 1=little or no influence at all


Contents
Acknowledgments
Executive summary
1. Introduction
2. Understanding student decision-making
3. The method
4.  Applicants’ general intentions and sources of information
5.  The influences on school-leaver applicants
6.  The influences on mature-age applicants
7.  Subgroup differences: The effects of gender, socioeconomic status, and location
8.  Influences by field of study preference
9.  Influences according to the type of university chosen
10. Diversity and uncertainty: Applicant case studies
11. Decisions at the time of offer
12. The higher education choice process: A summary of findings and conclusions
Appendix 1 Definition of applicant subgroups
Appendix 2 Details of factor analyses
References


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