This project was financed by a grant from the Evaluations and Investigations Program of the Higher Education Division of the Department of Employment, Education, Training and Youth Affairs (DEETYA). The early work on this project was undertaken by Andrew Coleman (see Coleman and Burke 1993). Andrew, who is currently at Princeton University in the United States, has done some additional analysis which may be incorporated into later work on this topic. Chris Betts worked on the project in 1994. The work on the project in 1995 benefited from links with the Study of Medium Term Supply and Demand Projections for the Professions which is supported by a large ARC grant.

We are grateful for the discussions and feedback on earlier drafts of this work with officers in the Higher Education Division of DEETYA, Professor Peter Karmel and participants in seminars at Monash University, Lancaster University (United Kingdom), University of Limburg (The Netherlands) and the Catholic University of Louvain (Belgium), where this work was presented.

Executive Summary

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The report outlines the development of a model to study the movement of students in, through and out of higher education in Australia. It provides a means for projecting the number of students, graduates and dropouts by age, gender and broad field of study. The model also provides estimates of the probability of a student completing a course, the average time a student takes to complete a course and the average time a student stays in the system. Data from the student course enrolment file and completion file that DEETYA maintains are used to estimate the model.

Some general conclusions that can be drawn from the results for Australian undergraduate students are:

a female student has a higher chance of completing a course than a male student who commences at the same age;

the probability of completing a course for an Australian student varies from 58 percent for one who commences the course at an age between 25 and 34 years, to 74 percent for one who commences it at an age of 20 years;

a 20-year-old has the highest chance of completing a course, with the chances for a female being 79 percent and that for a male 69 percent;

an Engineering student has the least chance of completing a course while a Law student commencing at the same age has the highest chance of doing so (if an analysis of students doing Medicine was possible then we would expect their results to be similar to that for Law);

a student who commences a course in Business or Engineering at an age of 24 years or more has a 50 percent or less chance of completing it;

a student who commences a course in Architecture or Science at an age over 29 years has less than 50 percent chance of completing it;

a female student takes less time, on average, to complete a course than a male student who commences at the same age, with the difference in the times as much as 0.7 years; and

a student who commences a course at an age of 21 years takes, on average, the shortest time (3.1 years) to complete it.

Some of the variation may be related to the student's mode of study, that is, full-time, part-time or external. Another factor which may affect results is credit transfer from prior courses. These issues could be matters for further research.

The conclusions for postgraduate students are:

the probability of completing a Research degree varies from 40 percent for someone who commences it at an age of under 23 years to 60 percent for one who commences it at an age of 23 or 24 years;

the probability of completing a Master's by Coursework degree is almost 67 percent irrespective of the age at which it is commenced;

the probability of completing an Other Postgraduate course varies from 67 percent for someone who commences it at an age of between 27 and 34 years to 79 percent for one who commences it at an age of under 23 years;

in general, male students have a better chance of completing a Research degree than female students who commence the degree at the same age;

female students have a better chance of completing an Other Postgraduate course than male students who commence the course at the same age;

the mean time to complete a Research degree varies from 4.4 years for those persons who commence it at an age of 25 or 26 years to 6 years for those who commence at an age less than 23 years;

the mean time to complete a Master's by Coursework degree increases from 2.7 years to 3.1 years as the age at which the student commences the course goes up;

the mean time to complete an other Postgraduate course increases from 1.5 years to 2.1 years as the age at which the student commences the course goes up; and

in general, male students take, on average, a shorter time to complete a Research or Master's by Coursework degree than females who commence the course at the same age.

Part of the variation in the results may be explained by field of study. Student's mode of study is another matter for further research. It must be noted that Research degree includes both doctorates and Master's by research, and the reported averages are likely to be underestimates for doctorates and overestimates for Master's by research.

Projections of student intake, total enrolment, course completions and dropouts for undergraduates by sex and field of study up to the year 2001 are presented in the report. Similar projections are made for postgraduate students by level of course but not by field of study. The undergraduate projections show variation by field of study, and that for postgraduates the variation is by level of course.

The undergraduate projections reflect:

the 1993 to 1994 dynamics of students' progress through the system;

the demographic changes projected to occur between 1995 and 2001;

a constant school retention rate as calculated from the 1993 and 1994 school enrolment data;

a constant proportion, based on the 1994 data, of Year 12 students continuing into higher education; and

a constant proportion, based on the 1994 data, of non-school-leavers entering higher education.

Under this scenario the projections up to the year 2001 can be summarised as follows:

total course commencements are projected to decline from 1995 to 1998 and then slowly rise until 2001, with a total increase in numbers of 0.8 percent;

the increase in the number of Australian course commencements between 1995 and 2001 is projected to be 0.4 percent, but male numbers are projected to decline by 0.3 percent and female numbers to increase by 0.9 percent;

total course commencements by Australian students in Architecture, Engineering and Science are projected to decline between 1995 and 2001;

the number of Australian students enrolled is projected to increase by 4.6 percent between 1995 and 2001;

the number of Australian students enrolled in Education (Initial training) are projected to decline by 1.4 percent, while those in Law are projected to increase by 13.2 percent between 1995 and 2001;

the number of course completions by Australian students is projected to increase by 5.2 percent between 1995 and 2001, with females making up 60 percent of all completions in 2001;

course completions by Australian students in Education (Initial training) are projected to decline by 7.5 percent, while those in Law are projected to increase by 20 percent; and

the number of Australian dropouts is projected to grow by 3.1 percent between 1995 and 2001.

The postgraduate projections reflect:

the 1993 to 1994 dynamics of students' progress through the system;

the demographic changes projected to occur between 1995 and 2001; and

a constant proportion, based on the 1994 data, of a particular age group entering post graduate courses.

Under this scenario the projections up to the year 2001 can be summarised as follows:

total course commencements are projected to increase by 1.7 percent between 1995 and 2001, with male commencement numbers going up by 2 percent and that of females by 1.5 percent;

the number of students enrolled is projected to increase by 11.5 percent between 1995 and 2001, with those enrolled for Research, Master's by Coursework and Other Postgraduate courses projected to increase by 16.2, 14.6 and 6.7 percent, respectively;

course completions are projected to increase by 15.6 percent;

Research degree completions are projected to increase by 38.1 percent between 1995 and 2001, with male completions by 33.7 percent and that of females by 45.4 percent;

Master's by Coursework degree completions are projected to increase by 22.2 percent between 1995 and 2001, with male completions by 18.6 percent and that of females by 26.5 percent; and

the number of dropouts is projected to grow by 5.9 percent between 1995 and 2001.

An evaluation of the model was carried out by comparing the retrospective predictions of total enrolment numbers for 1989 to 1994 and completion numbers for 1989 to 1993 made with it with the actual numbers for these years. This suggests that it provides predictions for aggregate student enrolments with a high degree of accuracy given the annual intake. A less degree of accuracy is attained for course completions for some fields of study. Where considerable change is occurring in the structure of courses the model provides less accurate predictions.

In this report, the model to project student intake is based on projected demographic changes, a constant Year 12 retention rate and a constant participation rate for non-school-leaver intakes. However, it would be relatively easy to obtain projections based on another set of assumptions, or even using a different model of student intakes. A considerable amount of simulation of the system under varying conditions is possible.

With the existing data and the current model further analysis can be performed. For example, analysis can be done for each State, though some field of study estimates for small states may not be reliable. Some analysis by the student's enrolment status, that is, full-time, part-time or external, can also be carried out. However, existing data does not allow the estimation of completions and dropouts by enrolment states because the completions file does not include that variable. The estimates that are reported can be converted to obtain approximate EFTSUs.

A great deal more work can be undertaken if full cohort data were available for at least a pair of years, say 1994 and 1995 and the student enrolment file was linked to the completions file. In particular, it would then be possible to model those students who transfer from one course to another. A much clearer picture would emerge about the pathways of students and the proportion of a generation achieving a university qualification.

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Student Flows in Australian Higher Education

Contents

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary

Student Flows in Australian
Higher Education