Contents | Next | Previous

• 3.4 Net replacement
• 3.5 Job openings
• 3.6 Net job openings
• 3.7 Summary

Job Growth and Replacement Needs in Nursing Occupations

3.4 Net replacement

Summary results for net replacement needs are included in Table 14. The aggregate net replacement in nursing occupations for the years 2002 to 2006 is 21 900, at average annual rate of 1.8 per cent per year. Of these 16 700 will be Nursing Professionals, 1 900 Enrolled Nurses, 2 900 Personal Care and Nursing Assistants and 400 Directors of Nursing. Compared to this the net replacement needs in the Australian economy as a whole are at an average annual rate of 2.2 per cent.

Net replacement varies across nursing occupations with the highest rate for Directors of Nursing and the least rate for Nurse Educators and Researchers. The high rate for the former group reflects its older age profile, while the low rate for the latter reflects its declining size. The rate for Registered Nurses (1.9 per cent) is higher than for Enrolled Nurses (1.7 per cent) and in turn its rate is higher than for Personal Care and Nursing Assistants (1.5 per cent). The most recent estimate of net replacement of Registered Nurses in the United States is 1.7 per cent (Bureau of Labour Statistics 2000).

Table 14. Projected net replacement needs in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006

Note: Estimates for the smaller occupations are subject to large standard errors and should be interpreted with caution.

top

Net outflows of Registered Nurses

Table 15 shows projected net outflows by age for male and female Registered Nurses. In 2001, male Registered Nurses were much younger than their female counterparts with 63 per cent of males aged 40 or below compared to 37 percent of females. This is clearly reflected in their relative net replacement rates. The replacement rate for males is less than half that for females. Male net outflows are only expected from the 50-54 and older age groups.

The pattern of female outflows is complicated by the fact that a significant number of females depart the occupation either permanently or for extended periods for maternity. This is reflected in 30 per cent of female net outflows being from the 30-39 age group. A substantial number of females return to the workforce at later years. This then reduces net inflows from the 40-44 age group. Most net outflows however are from the 45-49 and older age groups.

Table 15. Projected net outflows of Registered Nurses by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006

top

Net outflows of Enrolled Nurses

Net outflows by age and sex for Enrolled Nurses are shown in Table 16. In spite of a positive projected net outflow rate, some net outflows are zero because net outflows are a product of the projected outflow rate and the current employment level and if the latter is zero then the outflow is zero as well. Estimates of male net outflows should be interpreted with caution because of the small number of males in this occupation. In general, apart from a small number of male outflows from the younger age groups, most are from 55-59 and older age groups.

The pattern of female net outflows for Enrolled Nurses is a little different to that for Registered Nurses. Although female Enrolled Nurses also leave in relatively large numbers from the younger age groups, net outflows only occur from the 20-29 age group and they only amount to 12 per cent of all net outflows. Some of these leavers are upgrading qualifications to become Registered Nurses and others are probably going on maternity leave. If significant numbers are indeed going on maternity leave then it indicates a different behaviour pattern to Registered Nurses who tend to go on maternity leave later. Most net outflows are expected from the 50-54 and older age groups, with some also from the 40-45 age group.

Table 16. Projected net outflows of Enrolled Nurses by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006

top

Net outflows of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants

In 2001, male Personal Care and Nursing Assistants were younger than their female counterparts with 56 per cent of them below the age of 40 compared to 41 percent of females. However, as Table 17 shows, the net replacement rate for males is slightly higher than that for females. This suggests average job tenure to be shorter for males than females. About half of all male net outflows are expected from the 20-39 age group which means that a significant proportion regard the job in this occupation as transitional. The rest of the outflows are from 55-59 and older age groups.

Female net outflow patterns are somewhat similar to those of female Enrolled Nurses, with over 30 per cent of net outflows from the 20-34 age group. The rest are from the 50-54 and older age groups.

Table 17. Projected net outflows of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006

top

3.5 Job openings

If job growth in an occupation is positive then job openings are the sum of gross replacement and growth, otherwise they are the same as gross replacement because a negative growth implies zero job openings. Calculations of job openings were done for each four-digit occupation.⁸

Across the economy as a whole, over 7 300 000 job openings are projected for the five-year period ending 2006 (Table 18). This translates to an annual rate of 16.2 per cent. Job openings in nursing occupations are projected to be 111 000, at annual rate of 9 per cent. The rates vary significantly across the different nursing occupations. They are highest for managerial nursing occupations, with the rate for Directors of Nursing double that for Nurse Managers. Once again, given that these occupations are small in size, the results for them together with the other small occupations should be interpreted with caution. Job openings for Registered Nurses expected at an annual rate of 7.6 per cent. As for many other unskilled or semi-skilled occupations, in which average tenure in a job is short, the job openings’ rate for Personal Care and Nursing Assistants is quite high.

Table 18. Projected job openings in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006

Note: Estimates for the smaller occupations are subject to large standard errors and should be interpreted with caution.

top

3.6 Net job openings

Net job openings provide indications of job opportunities for new entrants into an occupation. Their calculation is similar to that for job openings, if job growth in an occupation is positive then net job openings are the sum of net replacement and growth, otherwise they are the same as net replacement. Just as before the estimate for a group of occupations is the aggregate of estimates for the four-digit occupations that make up the group.

The projections of net job openings in nursing occupations are presented in Table 19. In the five-year period ending 2006, 31 000 net job openings expect to be created for Nursing Workers at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent. This is below the 3.9 per cent rate for the economy as whole. Over 80 per cent of projected net job openings for Nursing Workers are for Nursing Professionals of which 21 000 are for Registered Nurses. Managerial nursing occupations and Registered Midwives are expected to have the highest rates of net job openings, while Enrolled Nurses and Personal Care and Nursing Assistants the lowest rates.

Table 19. Projected net job openings in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006

Note: Estimates for the smaller occupations are subject to large standard errors and should be interpreted with caution.

top

3.7 Summary

This chapter analyses growth and replacement needs, both gross and net, in nursing occupations in Australia. Each of these concepts required a different model to be developed and different data sets to estimate. On the basis of these analyses total job openings and job openings for new entrants were calculated for each nursing occupation. Projections for the five-year period ending 2006 are also included.

In the nursing occupations that are expanding about 9 000 additional jobs are likely to be created from 2001 to 2006. Contraction in some nursing occupations means that the growth in employment of Nursing Workers may grow by only about 5 000 overall. The average annual growth rate is 0.4 per cent, which is well below the growth rate of 1.4 per cent for the employed labour force as a whole. Employment growth in the Health and Community industry sector is forecasted at annual average of 1.9 per cent. The growth in the other two health professional occupation groups is also projected to be higher than for Nursing Workers¾ 2.4 per cent for Medical Professionals and 2.1 per cent for Other Miscellaneous Health Professionals.

Large growth is expected within the Nursing Professional group in the managerial nursing occupations and among Registered Midwives, but a contraction is expected among Enrolled Nurses and Personal Care and Nursing Assistants. The expected contraction in the last two occupations appear to run counter to anecdotal evidence of shortage, especially in the aged care sector.

The job openings in nursing occupations due to persons leaving employment are expected to total more than 100 000 in the five years to 2006 period, at an annual rate of 8.3 per cent. This is well below the 14.5 per cent rate for the economy as a whole. There is a heavy bias towards professionals among Nursing Workers, and professional jobs are generally of longer tenure and outflows to other occupations or out of employment are lower. The replacement rates vary across the different nursing occupations, with the rate for professionals, in general, lower than for the two non-professional category occupations.

The net jobs available to new entrants resulting from persons leaving employment (and after allowing for the contraction in employment in some occupations) are estimated to be 22 000, or at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent. This is lower than the rate of 2.2 per cent for the economy as a whole. The net replacement rate for Nursing Professionals is slightly higher than the rate for Personal Care and Nursing Assistants.

On the basis of the above projections of both growth and gross replacement, aggregate job openings are calculated to be 110 000 for the five years to 2006. These include job openings for all who wish to enter or re-enter these occupations, and include jobs opening up as a result of, for example, Enrolled Nurses changing occupation to become Registered Nurses or Registered Nurses being promoted to the occupation of a Nurse Manager. Of all job openings in nursing occupations, 68 per cent are expected for Nurse Professionals (including Directors of Nursing), 10 per cent for Enrolled Nurses and 22 per cent for Personal Care and Nursing Assistants. Less than one in ten openings are as a result of growth in nursing occupations.

Jobs available to new entrants in nursing occupations are projected to be 31 000 for the five years. This is an annual rate of 2.5 per cent. The net job openings’ information provides an indication of minimum training requirements. The actual number to be trained will naturally be higher because some trainees drop out of courses and others may opt for jobs in alternative occupations.

The rates of job openings for new entrants vary across occupations with some of the highest rates for managerial occupations and Registered Midwives. The rates for Enrolled Nurses and Personal Care and Nursing Assistants are much lower than for others because the only job openings in these occupations are due to net replacement while in others they are also due to growth. The large majority of job openings for new entrants into nursing occupations arise from replacing workers who leave, 84 per cent compared to 64 per cent for all occupations.

Contents | Next | Previous

home  |  search  |  site map

Any comments or queries should be sent to: highered@dest.gov.au

This page was last updated on Tuesday, 04 December 2001
Department of Education, Science and Training
Copyright © Commonwealth of Australia
DEST Web Site Privacy Statement
Disclaimer