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National Review of Nursing Education

Job Growth and Replacement Needs in Nursing Occupations

Chandra Shah
Gerald Burke

Monash University-ACER Centre for Economics of Education and Training

EIP 01/18
November 2001

Evaluations and Investigations Programme
Higher Education Division
© Commonwealth of Australia 2001

ISBN  0 642 77237 1 (Online version)
DEST No. 6792.HERC01A

This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright ACT 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without permission from AusInfo. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Manager, Legislative services, AusInfo, GPO Box 84, Canberra ACT 2601.

This research was commissioned by the National Review of Nursing Education funded by the Department of Education, Science and Training and the Department of Health and Ageing.

The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Education, Science and Training or the Department of Health and Ageing

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Contents

• List of Tables
• List of Figures
• Acknowledgments
• Executive summary
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Employment patterns in nursing occupations, 1987-01
  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Data source
  • 2.3 Nursing Workers
  • 2.4 Directors of Nursing
  • 2.5 Nursing Professionals
    • 2.5.1 Nurse Managers
    • 2.5.2 Nurse Educators and Researchers
    • 2.5.3 Registered Nurses
    • 2.5.4 Registered Midwives
    • 2.5.5 Registered Mental Health Nurses
    • 2.5.6 Registered Developmental Disability Nurses
  • 2.6 Enrolled Nurses 
  • 2.7 Personal Care and Nursing Assistants
  • 2.8 Summary
• 3 Growth and replacement needs in nursing occupations
  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Growth
  • 3.3 Gross replacement
  • 3.4 Net replacement
  • 3.5 Job openings
  • 3.6 Net job openings
  • 3.7 Summary
• 4 Concluding comments
• References
• Appendix 1: Aged or Disabled Person Carers
  • Employment patterns
  • Projections
• Appendix 2: Methodology for estimating replacement needs
  • Methodology for estimating gross replacement
  • Methodology for estimating net replacement

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List of Tables

• Table 1. Employment growth in nursing occupations, Australia, 1987-01 
• Table 2. Employment growth of Nursing Workers by State and Territory, 1987-01 
• Table 3. Employment growth of Nursing Professionals, Australia, 1987-01 
• Table 4. Summary statistics on Nursing Professionals: age and hours worked per week, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Table 5. Employment growth of Registered Nurses by State and Territory, 1987-01 
• Table 6. Employment growth of Enrolled Nurses by State and Territory, 1987-01 
• Table 7. Employment growth of Personal Carers and Nursing Assistants by State and Territory, 1987-01 
• Table 8. Proportions of Nursing Workers employed as Nursing Professionals, Enrolled Nurses and Personal Carers and Nursing Assistants by State and Territory, 1987 and 2001 
• Table 9. State and Territory shares of employment in major nursing occupations, 1987 and 2001 
• Table 10. Projected growth in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table 11. Projected gross replacement needs in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table 12. Occupational outflows (%) of Nursing Workers by destination between February 1999 and February 2000 
• Table 13. Occupational inflows (%) of Nursing Workers by source between February 1999 and February 2000 
• Table 14. Projected net replacement needs in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table 15. Projected net outflows of Registered Nurses by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table 16. Projected net outflows of Enrolled Nurses by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table 17. Projected net outflows of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table 18. Projected job openings in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table 19. Projected net job openings in nursing occupations in Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table A1. Employment growth of Aged or Disabled Person Carers by State and Territory, 1987-01 
• Table A2. State and Territory shares of employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, 1987 and 2001 
• Table A3. Projected jobs for Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table A4. Projected net outflows of Aged or Disabled Person Carers by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006 
• Table A5. Hypothetical example of calculations of net replacement 

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List of Figures

• Figure 1. Employment in all occupations and of Nursing Workers Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 2. Nursing Workers per 100 000 population, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 3. Employment of Nursing Workers in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 4. Employment of Nursing Workers in Western Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, 1987-01 
• Figure 5. Nursing Workers per 100 000 population, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 6. Nursing Workers per 100 000 population, Western Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory, 1987-01 
• Figure 7. Age profile of Nursing Workers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 8. Hours worked in all occupations, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 9. Hours worked by Nursing Workers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 10. Qualifications profile of Nursing Workers, Australia, 2000 
• Figure 11. Employment of Directors of Nursing, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 12. Age profile of Directors of Nursing, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 13. Hours worked by Directors of Nursing, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 14. Qualifications profile of Nursing Professionals, Australia, 2000 
• Figure 15. Employment of Nurse Managers, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 16. Age profile of Nurse Managers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 17. Hours worked by Nurse Managers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 18. Employment of Nurse Educators and Researchers, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 19. Age profile of Nurse Educators and Researchers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 20. Hours worked by Nurse Educators and Researchers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 21. Employment of Registered Nurses, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 22. Employment of Registered Nurses in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 23. Employment of Registered Nurses in Western Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, 1987-01 
• Figure 24. Age profile of Registered Nurses, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 25. Hours worked by Registered Nurses, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 26. Employment of Registered Midwives, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 27. Age profile of Registered Midwives, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 28. Hours worked by Registered Midwives, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 29. Employment of Registered Mental Health Nurses, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 30. Age profile of Registered Mental Health Nurses, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 31. Hours worked by Registered Mental Health Nurses, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 32. Employment of Registered Developmental Disability Nurses, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 33. Employment of Enrolled Nurses, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 34. Employment of Enrolled Nurses in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 35. Employment of Enrolled Nurses in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory 1987-01 
• Figure 36. Age profile of Enrolled Nurses, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 37. Hours worked by Enrolled Nurses, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 38. Qualifications profile of Enrolled Nurses, Australia, 2000 
• Figure 39. Employment of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 40. Employment of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure 41. Employment of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory 1987-01 
• Figure 42. Age profile of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 43. Hours worked by Personal Care and Nursing Assistants, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure 44. Qualifications profile of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants, Australia, 2000 
• Figure 45. Flows of individuals in and out of an occupation 
• Figure A1. Employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure A2. Employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, 1987-01 
• Figure A3. Employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers in Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory 1987-01 
• Figure A4. Age profile of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure A5. Hours worked by Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 
• Figure A6. Qualifications profile of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 2000 

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