Part 2 Executive Summary

	E I P	Part 2: Admission Outcomes for NSW TAFE Graduates Who Apply to University: Evidence from NSW and ACT Universities, 1991–1996 Don Lewis Department of Economics University of Wollongong

This study analyses the number and distribution of applications, offers and enrolments in universities in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory between 1991 and 1996. A primary purpose of this study is to quantify and evaluate the extent to which former New South Wales Technical and Further Education (TAFE) students apply to university and their relative success in gaining admission. This study also analyses the effects of moving to a more centralised system of admissions which was adopted in 1996 by the Universities Admissions Centre (UAC) and participating universities.

The number of total applications to university and the number of offers made by universities in New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory fluctuated from year to year, often in opposite directions. The number of applications reached a peak of 94 581 in 1992 but declined to 79 758 in 1996. On the other hand, the number of offers reach a peak of 58 613 in 1996, up from a low of 51 074 in 1992. One consequence was that the percentage of applicants who received an offer fluctuated over the period, rising to 73.5 per cent on 1996 after being only 54.0 per cent in 1992.

Another consequence was that entry requirements for school leavers, former TAFE students and other applicants fluctuated widely for most courses. Fluctuations in the number of applications, the number of offers, the offer rates and the entry requirements make admission to university something of a year to year lottery and require students and universities to make decisions under conditions of great uncertainty.

Over the six year period, the number of applications to university decreased while the number of places available increased. As a consequence competition for university places eased and entry requirements were generally relaxed. Total University Admissions Centre applications decreased by 6.7 per cent while total offers increased by 4.2 per cent and total enrolments decreased by 0.5 per cent. As a consequence the proportion of applicants who received an offer to university increased from 65.8 per cent to 73.5 per cent. On the other hand, the proportion of students who enrolled after receiving an offer fell from 69.7 per cent to 66.6 per cent.

There was a rapid growth in the number of applications from students who had previously attended TAFE. They accounted for 6.3 per cent of all applications in 1991; by 1996 this had increased to 10.6 per cent. The number of applications from such students increased from 5 351 in 1991 to 9 153 in 1994 and then fell slightly to 8 486 in 1996. Applications from Higher School Certificate (HSC) students (direct entrants from year 12) increased from 42 717 to 48 095 between 1991 and 1996 while applications from other categories of students fell from 37 403 to 23 177.

The number of former TAFE students who received an offer to university more than doubled, increasing from 3 100 in 1991 to 6 392 in 1996. Offers to HSC students increased only marginally while those to other applicants (non-HSC and non-TAFE) declined over the same period. As a consequence the share of total offers going to former TAFE students increased from 5.5 in 1991 to 10.9 per cent in 1996. Their share of actual enrolments also increased over the period, from 5.6 per cent in 1991 to 11.0 per cent in 1996.

Between 1991 and 1994 TAFE graduates faced greater difficulty in gaining admission to university than other applicants, especially HSC students. This pattern was reversed in 1995 and 1996. In 1996 TAFE graduates were more likely than school leavers to get an offer for their first preference (47.4 per cent versus 45.0 per cent) and were also more likely to get an offer to any preference (75.3 per cent versus 69.0 per cent). It appears that universities responded to the need to fill more places in the face of falling demand by accepting more applicants from the pool of non-school leavers. Had they taken more school leavers the Tertiary Entrance Ranking (TER) cut-offs would have fallen even more than they did. Changes in Government policy may also have influenced the composition of intake at some universities.

Former TAFE students continue to select fewer preferences than others. In 1996, for example, 64.1 per cent of HSC students selected the maximum number of preferences (six) while only 39.1 per cent of former TAFE students selected all six. Although the choices for some may be limited because they target particular courses or universities or need to study part-time, some TAFE graduates are missing out on the opportunity to attend university because they are not indicating enough preferences.

Former TAFE students are relatively unsuccessful in gaining admission to courses with high cut-offs. In 1996 their offer rate to courses with cut-offs of 80 TER and above was only 43.4 per cent compared to 76.6 per cent for HSC students. In contrast their offer rate to courses with cut-offs below 55 was considerably above that for HSC students (89.1 per cent versus 71.5 per cent).

Only 8.9 per cent of former TAFE students who receive an offer get an offer to a course with a high cut-off; in contrast 20.8 per cent of HSC students receive such an offer.

Academic performance at TAFE is an important determinant of success in gaining admission to university. In 1996, for example, 65.5 per cent of TAFE students with a grade of Distinction gained entry to the course of their first choice; while 56.6 per cent with a credit and 42.1 per cent with a graded Pass received such an offer.

Applications and offer rates for former TAFE students vary significantly across universities. For example, in 1996 21.3 per cent of the first preference applications to the University of Technology, Sydney-City were from TAFE graduates compared to only 6.0 and 7.7 per cent for the University of Sydney and the University of New South Wales. First preference offer rates for TAFE graduates also varied substantially; below 30 per cent at some universities (University of Sydney and the University of Technology, Sydney-City ) and above 80 per cent at others (Charles Sturt University-Murray, Southern Cross University, University of New England, Charles Sturt University-Mitchell and the University of Sydney-Orange). While some of the variations in applications and offer rates may be explained by the location of the university, the type of courses offered, and the TER cut-off for various courses, much of the variation remains unexplained. It is not clear that TAFE qualifications are being consistently evaluated across all universities, even for similar courses.

In 1996 a new computerised admissions processing system was implemented at the University Admissions Centre which allows for common assessment procedures at all universities. The new procedures should be commended for making the assessment of TAFE qualifications more transparent and standard across universities. There is no evidence, however, that the common assessment procedure had a substantial impact on the likelihood of a TAFE graduate getting an offer to university.

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