Appendix

Table A1: Results from Estimating Year 12 Apparent Retention Rates

Table A2: Results From Estimating Year 12 Application Rates

Table A3: Results From Estimating Mature Age Application Rates

Table A4: Results From Estimating Effect of Differential HECS on Applications by Discipline

Table A1: Results from Estimating Year 12 Apparent Retention Rates

Notes: *, ** denotes significance at the 10 and 5 per cent levels respectively.
N = 19

Grainger Causality Test Results

Where:

• RET represents the apparent Year 12 retention rate;
• FTPOP is the proportion of teenager population in full-time employment;
• PTPOP is the proportion of the teenage population in part-time employment;
• HECS represents the Higher Education Contribution Scheme;
• POP captures the effect of the number of teenage immigrants;
• CHANGE is a dummy variable capturing the effects of the apparent shift in education tastes in 1992; and
• RWJ(-1) is the junior full time wage rate deflated by the Consumer Price Index lagged one year.

Table A2: Results From Estimating Year 12 Application Rates

Notes: *, ** denotes significance at the 10 and 5 per cent levels respectively.
N = 13

Regressing Year 12 Students on the Number of Unemployed Teenagers Looking for Full-time Employment

U = -16.687 +     0.0002YR12 +     0.587U(-1)
        12.710         6.86E-05**        0.170**

Adjusted R² = 0.667     DW = 1.850     F-statistic = 12.009**

Where:

• LnAPP12 is the transformed lagged Year 12 application rate (i.e. percentage of Year 12 students applying to enter higher education within two years of completing Year 12);
• U is the number of teenagers looking for their first full-time job, U(-1) is the variable lagged one year;
• RWJ is the junior full time wage rate deflated by the Consumer Price Index;
• UD(-1) is the level of unsatisfied demand lagged one year;
• VETPOP represents participation in the vocational education and training sector as a percentage of the 15 -19 year old population;
• HECSI is a dummy variable representing the introduction of HECS in 1989;
• HECSII is a dummy variable representing the 1996 changes to the HECS arrangements
• HECSIII is a dummy variable representing the announcement effect following the introduction of HECS; and
• Yr12 is the number of Year 12 students.

Table A3: Results From Estimating Mature Age Application Rates

Notes: *, ** denotes significance at the 10 and 5 per cent levels respectively.
N = 13

Where:

• EMPOP is the proportion of the 20–45 year old population employed;
• RW is the full time adult wage rate deflated by the Consumer Price Index;
• UD(-1) is the level of unsatisfied demand lagged one year;
• VETPOP represents participation in the vocational education and training sector as a percentage of the 20–45 year old population;
• HECSI is a dummy variable representing the introduction of HECS in 1989;
• HECSII is a dummy variable representing the 1996 changes to the HECS arrangements
• HECSIII is a dummy variable representing the announcement effect following the introduction of HECS; and
• Trend accounts for the upward rise in the application rate for the 20–45 year old group.

Table A4: Results From Estimating Effect of Differential HECS
on Applications by Discipline

Notes: *, ** denotes significance at the 10 and 5 per cent levels respectively.
N = 127

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