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Job Growth and Replacement Needs in Nursing Occupations

• Appendix 1: Aged or Disabled Person Carers 
  • Employment patterns 
  • Projections

Appendix 1: Aged or Disabled Person Carers

Employment patterns

In AIHW (2001a) Aged or Disabled Person Carer is included among the community services occupations. It is at the six-digit level in ASCO and is the predominant occupation of the Special Care Workers group. The employment data for Aged or Disabled Person Carer were derived as a proportion of the Special Care Workers’ employment. The proportions were state by sex specific and calculated from the 1996 Census data (AIHW 2001a). In 2001, over 80 per cent of Special Care Workers were Aged or Disabled Person Carers.

There were 71 000 Aged or Disabled Person Carers in employment in 2001, 85 percent of whom were female. As Figure A1 shows there has been a phenomenal growth in this occupation. The size of the occupation in 2001 was more than four times its size in 1987, and has grown at an average annual rate of 10 per cent during this period (Figure A1). Unlike some of the nursing occupations, the recession of 1992-93 does not seem to have had much effect on the employment in this occupation.

Figure A1. Employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 1987-01

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Employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers grew in all States and Territories. However the rate of growth varied across jurisdictions (Figures A2 and A3). As Table A2 shows Tasmania has had the greatest average growth rate of 15 per cent while the growth rates for the two Territories have been the smallest. The differential growth rates have resulted in changes in each State and Territory’s share of employment in this occupation. Table A2 shows that Victoria’s share increased by 4 percentage points between 1987 and 2001 while New South Wales’ share dropped by 10 percentage points.

Figure A2. Employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, 1987-01

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Figure A3. Employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers in Western Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory 1987-01

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Table A1. Employment growth of Aged or Disabled Person Carers by State and Territory, 1987-01

Note: The annual rates were estimated by fitting a log linear model to the annual employment data.

Table A2. State and Territory shares of employment of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, 1987 and 2001

Figure A4 shows that the age profile of the Aged or Disabled Person Carers has changed significantly between 1987 and 2001. Fewer young people work in this occupation than they used to, for example, in 1987 more than half the workers were under the age of 35 compared to just a quarter in 2001. In 1987, only 19 per cent were 45 years or older but in 2001 45 per cent were in this age group.

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Figure A4. Age profile of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 1987 and 2001

Unlike in some of the nursing occupations the proportion of Aged or Disabled Person Carers working the normal full-time hours has in fact increased (Figure A5). The proportion working 16-34 hours has also increased whilst those working the very long or short hours has gone down. Overall two out of every three workers worked part-time in 2001.

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Figure A5. Hours worked by Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 1987 and 2001

More than half the people working as Aged or Disabled Person Carers had no post-school qualification as at May 2000, however, about a quarter of them were attending some tertiary institution. Most of those with post-school qualifications had these in VET.

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Figure A6. Qualifications profile of Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, 2000

Note: The Post-graduate category includes higher degrees and post-graduate diplomas, the Diploma includes undergraduate diplomas and associate diplomas. The percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding errors. (Source of data: ABS [2000d])

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Projections

Table A3 shows the employment projections for Aged or Disabled Person Carers for the five-year period ending 2006. The growth projections are from MONASH and replacement needs are from models developed at CEET. On the basis of employment levels in 2001, growth of 17 400 is projected in this occupation over the five-year period. This translates to a very healthy rate of 4.9 per cent per annum. The combination of high growth and gross replacement rates means the rate of job openings is quite high in this occupation.

Even though the net replacement rate is relatively low, the high growth rate implies that job openings for new entrants into the occupation remain high compared to most nursing occupations. Over the next five years 21 000 job openings are projected for new entrants.

Table A3. Projected jobs for Aged or Disabled Person Carers, Australia, from 2001 to 2006

Table A4 shows the pattern of net outflows by sex and age from the Aged or Disabled Person Carer’s occupation. Male outflows are projected from the 60 years and older age groups. Female net outflows are from these age groups too, but in addition also occur from the 20-29 age group. Just over half of all net outflows of females are from the 20-29 age group.

Table A4. Projected net outflows of Aged or Disabled Person Carers by sex and age, Australia, from 2001 to 2006

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