The Nursing Workforce - 2010

5. Conclusion

This paper has looked at some of the changes that have occurred in the nursing workforce and has attempted to unpack some of the factors driving those changes. It then constructed a number of models in order to provide a framework for undertaking some projections.

A number of points emerge. First, there have been some major structural changes in the workforce including

A decline in the importance of enrolled nurses
An increase in the number of nursing assistants and personal carers
An increase of part time workers
An ageing of the nursing workforce.

Interestingly, the historical analysis shows that what are often considered to be the major drivers of the health workforce – an increase in the population and the ageing of the population – have only been one part of the story. Major structural shifts in work organisation have been evident.

Two types of models were built. First, a simple ‘demand’ model, which allows projections of percentage shifts in various factors. Second, a ‘supply’ model that traces flows through the nursing workplace. Any projections are only as good as their assumptions and all projections must be treated with great care and distrust. Nevertheless it seems clear that the nursing workforce is not in the equilibrium and that the population growth, the ageing of the population and the ageing of the workforce combine to suggest that the current outputs of nursing graduates will not meet likely demands. Further, it is unlikely that the supply could be expanded sufficiently to meet those demands. This leads to the conclusion that the resolution of this situation will be complex and is likely to involve:

An expansion in the number of nursing graduates
An end to the decline in the number of enrolled nurses
A review of articulation arrangements between nurses of various skill levels and nursing assistants/personal carers
Major changes to work organisation to reflect the changing balance of the nursing workforce.

On this last point, it is worth noting that structural change of this nature is not new and can be seen in the historical data. As with all workforce planning, equilibrium will not be obtained by predicting exactly labour requirements involving the nursing environment and adjusting the output of the education and training system accordingly. Rather, adjustments will have to occur in working conditions/remuneration of nurses in the health systems, in work organisation in the health care system, in articulation arrangements between different groups as well as in the education training systems.

Contents

Return to the Top of the Page

Any comments or queries should be sent to: wwweditor@dest.gov.au

This page was last updated on Tuesday, 26 August 2008
Department of Education, Science and Training
Copyright © Commonwealth of Australia
DETST Web Site Privacy Statement
Disclaimer