National Review of Nursing Education
The Nursing Workforce - 2010
Tom Karmel
Jianke Li
August 2002
© Commonwealth of Australia 2002
ISBN 0 642 77311 4 (Internet copy)
DEST No. 6925.HERC02A
This work is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or in part for
study or training purposes subject to the inclusion of the source and
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This report was commissioned for the National Review of Nursing Education. The Review was jointly funded by the Department of Education, Science and Training and the Department of Health and Ageing. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Education, Science and Training or the Department of Health and Ageing.
Contents
| Acknowledgements |
| 1. Changes in the nursing workforce over the 1990s |
| 2. Shift-share analysis - a 'demand model' |
| 3. A dynamic model of nurses - 'supply model' |
| 4. Projections |
| 5. Conclusion |
| Appendix |
| Appendix 1: Specification of the shift-share analysis |
| Appendix 2: Specification of the dynamic model |
| Appendix 3: Determination of parameters of the dynamic model |
| Appendix 4: Data collection and data processing |
|
References |
| Tables and Figures |
| Table 2.1 Acute care sector: decomposition of the percentage change in
registered and enrolled nurses, 1993-1999 (percentage points) |
| Table 2.2 Nursing homes sector: decomposition of the percentage change in
registered and enrolled nurses, 1993-1999 ( percentage points) |
| Table 2.3 Community care sector: decomposition of the percentage change in
registered and enrolled nurses, 1993-1999 (percentage point) |
| Table 3.1 Enrolments and commencements for vocational qualifications that
lead to enrolled nurse status |
| Table 4.1 Assumptions and projections for registered nurses, based on the
demand model, 2000-2010 (average annual percentage change) |
| Table 4.2 Assumptions and projections for enrolled nurses, based on the
demand model, 2000-2010 (average annual percentage change) |
| Table 4.3 Assumptions behind the projections derived from the supply model |
| Table A4.1 Employed registered and enrolled nurses: work setting, Australia,
1993-99 |
| Table A4.2 FTE employed registered and enrolled nurses: work setting,
Australia, 1993-99 |
| Table A4.3 Recurrent expenditure ($'000), public acute and psychiatric
hospitals, Australia, 1993-94 to 1999-00 |
| Table A4.4 All hospitals: patient days, age and persons, Australia, 1993-94
to 1999-00 |
| Table A4.5 All hospitals: hospital separations, age and persons, Australia,
1993-94 to 1999-00 |
| Table A4.6 Population estimates and projection at 30 June, persons and age,
Australia, 1993 to 2020. |
| Table A4.6a
Population estimates and projection at 30 June, persons and age,
Australia, 1993 to 2020. |
| Table A4.7 High dependency permanent nursing home residents, age by persons,
Australia, 30 June 1993 to 2000 |
| Table A4.8
Community care patients, persons by age, from 1993-1999 |
| Table A4.9 GDS results: The percentage
of Nursing basic new nursing graduates
worked |
| Table A4.10
Award Course Completions for Nursing Students by Board Level of
Courses, 1990 to 2000 |
| Figure 1.1
Change in employment - all occupations and Nursing Workers - in
Australia, 1987-01 |
| Figure 1.2 Nursing Workers per 100,000 population, Australia, 1987-2001 |
| Figure 1.3 Change in
employment of Registered Nurses, Australia, 1987-2001 |
| Figure 1.4 Change in employment of Enrolled Nurses, Australia, 1987-2001 |
| Figure 1.5 Change in employment of Personal Care and Nursing Assistants,
Australia, 1987-2001 |
| Figure 1.6 Employment of Aged and Disabled Person Carers, Australia,
1987-2001 |
| Figure 1.7 Age profile of Nursing Workers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 |
| Figure 1.8 Hours worked by Nursing Workers, Australia, 1987 and 2001 |
| Figure 1.9 Registered and enrolled nurses: employment status |
| Figure 1.10 Undergraduate award completions for non-overseas students
(Australia) |
| Figure 1.11 Permanent migration of nurses to and from Australia |
| Figure 1.12 Temporary migration of nurses for employment |
| Figure 1.13 The Bachelor degree graduates working full-time as a proportion
of those available for full-time employment, 1991-2000 |
| Figure 1.14 Proportion of nursing (basic) graduates employed |
| Figure 1.15 Trends in Skilled Vacancies - Nursing Professional and All
Occupations, January 1990 to June 2001 |
| Figure 3.1 The number of registered nurses by age, 1993-1999 |
| Figure 3.2 New nurse graduates, 1995-2000 |
| Figure 3.3 Overseas nurses with permanent migration to Australia, 1993-1999 |
| Figure 3.4 The net nurse exit rates, 1995 and 1996 |
| Figure 3.5 Smoothed and extrapolated net exit rate, registered nurses |
| Figure 3.6 The number of enrolled nurses by age, 1993-1999 |
| Figure 3.7 Derived net exit rate for enrolled nurses, 1993-1998 (Case I
results) |
| Figure 4.1 The projected registered nurses at 2010 and 2020, based on the
supply model |
| Figure 4.2 Projections of registered nurses, based on the supply model,
2000-2020 |
| Figure 4.3 Projections of the number of registered nurses, 2000-2020 |
| Figure 4.4 Projections of registered nurses, allowing for an increase in the
number of new students, 2000-2020 |
| Figure 4.5 Projections of the number of enrolled nurses, 2000-2020 |
| Figure 4.6 Projections of enrolled nurses, allowing for an increase in the
number of graduates, 2000-2020 |
| Figure A2.1 Projected aggregate exit rates for registered and enrolled
nurses, 2000-2010 |
| Figure A3.1 The calculated unsmoothed net nurse exit rates |
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