| Completions
Undergraduate academic outcomes
for 1992 commencing students August 1999 Occasional Paper Series Higher Education Division |
| 4. ConclusionOn the basis of the analysis in this paper it is estimated
that the final completion rate for undergraduate students who enter university is almost
82 per cent. This estimate is based on the probabilities derived from the 1992 cohort
database and allows students to recommence and complete undergraduate studies at some time
later. First time students who do not complete are allowed two further attempts. The
completion rate of 65 per cent used by the OECD is an underestimate of completions because
the estimation procedure does not allow students to return and complete in further
attempts.
The second part of the paper examines in some detail the effect of student characteristics on the probability of students completing an undergraduate degree. A number of factors appear to have a bearing on completion rates. For example women were more likely than men to complete a course of study. Younger students had significantly higher completion rates compared to older students with the exception of men enrolling on a basis other than TER. For this group age had no impact on completions. Completion rates for women who enroled on a basis other than TER improve somewhat in their 40s and 50s but were not as high as those for women in their late teens. Mode of study appears to have a reasonably strong influence on completion rates. Full-time students had by far the highest completion rate followed by part-time students then external students. This could suggest that the greater the attachment or involvement in academic study the greater the probability of completing an award. There was also a strong positive relationship between TER and completion rates and the results imply that TER is a better predictor of outcome in the middle ranges of TER scores. Students entering university on the basis of previous higher education, professional qualification or work experience also had higher rates of completion. Again this suggests that one of the factors determining successful completion of an award is some previous attachment to academic study or work experience. The field of study influences outcome. The fields of arts, science and engineering had a negative effect on completion rates while health, education, law, architecture and veterinary science had a positive impact on completion rates. Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander students had much lower completion rates than other domestic students while students from a Non-English speaking background had higher rates of completion than their English speaking counterparts. Male students with a non-English speaking background who enroled on a basis other than TER had substantially the same completion rates as their English speaking background counterparts. Socio-economic status exerts a positive influence on completion rates although it had only a marginal effect. Women students from an isolated area had a lower completion rate than women who originated from an urban area. Geographic location, however, has no effect on the completion rates of men. |