Model for the Distribution of New Higher Education Places

Step 1. Aim to equalise projected average higher education participation rates in 2008 for 17-25 year olds across the States and Territories using 6000 (16406 pipelined) places.

• Projected average higher education participation rates are calculated by dividing the number of fully-funded places for 17-25 year olds in 2002 by the projected population in this age group in 2008.
• The model then allocates the 6000 places in an attempt to equalise participation rates across the States in 2008.

Step 2. Allocate 2900 places (7930 pipelined) on the basis of State and Territory shares of the national projected 26-65 year old population in 2008.

Step 3. Allocate 200 places to serve the special regional development needs of Tasmania.

Step 4. Make the combined total allocation from the above three steps conditional upon the following:

• the final allocation to any State or Territory must not exceed 3300 (or 9023 pipelined) EFTSU or fall below 200 EFTSU (547 pipelined). Any allocation that lies above the ceiling will be redistributed firstly, to those States or Territories that fall below the floor and secondly, to the remaining States or Territories in equal proportions (excluding Tasmania and the Northern Territory).
• for reasons of sustainability, all universities must at least receive a share of the new Commonwealth-supported places such that the total number of Commonwealth-supported places in those universities builds to at least 3000 EFTSU by 2008.

Notes to the Stage 1 Model:

(i). Given the considerable overlap in regions serviced by New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory and that the Australian Capital Territory is an outlier in terms of participation rates relative to other States, the two have been combined in the model. Step 4 ensures that the Australian Capital Territory receives at least 200 EFTSU from the combined New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory allocation.

(ii). The Northern Territory is also an ‘outlier’ in terms of its relatively low participation rate for 17-25 year olds compared to other States. For this reason, the Northern Territory has been excluded from the Step 1 model.

(iii). In practical terms, it is unlikely that projected participation rates for 17-25 year olds will actually eventuate or be equal across the States and Territories. This is because institutions will still make their own decisions about who will receive these places and the new places will not be quarantined to 17-25 year olds.

Combining Steps 1-4 above results in the following allocation by State and Territory by 2008:

*pipelined figures to 2008 appear in brackets.

A consultation/negotiation/ and competitive bidding process will be used to allocate the State and Territory allocations from Stage 1 to individual institutions. During this process, a list of criteria for each State and Territory, negotiated in consultation with each State and Territory Government, will be used for the allocations to institutions and disciplines. Institutions will be expected to make competitive bids for places against these criteria.

The criteria will reflect the priorities within individual States and Territories and will therefore not necessarily need to be consistent across the country. After agreement on the criteria, institutions will be asked to forward their claims for places to the Department of Education, Science and Training. The claims will be assessed by the Department and a further consultation will be held with each State and Territory to determine their priorities. The Minister for Education, Science and Training will determine the final allocation. Further details of the Stage 2 process will be forthcoming.

Data sources

DEST Higher Education Statistics Collection, 2002.

ABS Population Projections (Cat No. 3222.0), released September 2003.