Success rates are based on the percentage of the study load commenced which is satisfactorily completed. Based on actual commencers, in the sense discussed above, the 2002 PAL students at Para West had a 65 per cent success rate, or more conservatively 56.6 per cent based on the apparent enrolment figure. While 71 per cent of the actual commencers remained until the end of the year, two of these intend to complete their courses in 2003 and could be deemed to have reduced their fraction rather than failed to complete. Taking this into account, the 2002 UniSA-PAL success rate increases to 71 per cent. In 2003 the four schools achieved an average success rate for the whole UniSA-PAL cohort of 64.2 per cent, varying from 81 per cent at Para West, 66 per cent at Marden, 59 per cent at Hamilton and 46 per cent at Thebarton.
The dramatic improvement of the success rate of the second group of UniSA-PAL students at Para West, to an astonishing 81 per cent, could well be due to the increased confidence of the teachers and the coordinator, conveyed to the students as an overall increased enjoyment in teaching the course. This aspect is reflected in the reduced support needs of the 2003 cohort140 and in the teachers’ and the coordinator’s comments recorded in section 6.5 below141 and seems a likely explanation, given the many uncertainties experienced by the teachers and the school as a whole in offering and assessing such a significantly different course from that usually taught at the school and in particular treading new ground in being the first school and teachers to do so. If this is a valid explanation for the improved success rates at Para West in 2003, similarly improved success rates may well be achieved at the remaining three adult re-entry schools in their second year of offering the UniSA-PAL course in 2004. This aspect should be monitored and further investigated.142
Between 1996 and 2002 the average success rate for students in stage one of the University’s Diploma in University Studies was 66.4 per cent, with annual rates varying between a high of 75.1 per cent in 1996 to a low of 53.8 per cent in the year 2000. The most recent internal analysis of the outcomes of the program143 undertook a correlational analysis to determine whether there was any significant relationship between the Diploma students’ success rates and their attrition rates. No significant relationship was found,144 confirming the conclusion of the earlier case study145 in terms of the causes of withdrawal. In common with other students, the success rates of commencing (that is, stage one) Diploma students are lower than for continuing (stage two) students. The success rates of commencing Diploma students were on average 69.1 per cent, with wide variations over the period 1996-2002 from 86.9 per cent in 1996 to a low of 48.6 per cent four years later.
Success rates for students in federally funded enabling programs are a matter of concern and in 2001 were raised by DEST for discussion with institutions at the national level as a result.146 The data provided in the DEST paper on the Enabling Program, based on the findings of Clarke et al, gives the average national success rate for students in bridging programs as 43 per cent, with 32 per cent average success rates in supplementary programs and 37.5 per cent for the Enabling Program overall (both components). This is compared with an average success rate nationally of 86 per cent for all higher education students in both 1998 and 1999, the years for which national data is available. Further, as this same study shows, the success rates for students with equity characteristics is also lower for those of them enrolled in enabling programs than for their counterparts in the wider student body. The rate for students from low socio-economic backgrounds is of some interest in the context of the concentration of such students in the UniSA-PAL program. Students from low socio-economic backgrounds achieved a success rate of 39 per cent in 1998 bridging programs nationally which compares badly with the success rates achieved by the UniSA-PAL students at Para West in 2002, of 56.5 per cent at worst and 71 per cent at best, depending on interpretations of the data.147 The comparison is even more marked in 2003, with UniSA-PAL students at Para West achieving a success rate of 81 per cent for actual commencers and 77 per cent based on initial enrolment numbers. The most recent data, extracted from DEST’s statistical collection, do however indicate significant improvement in the success rates for students in courses funded by the Enabling Program, from 48 percent in 2000 to 58 percent in 2003.148 However as with the more recent retention data discussed above, these rates relate to students enrolled in both types of courses, both supplementary and bridging, but they are nevertheless useful for comparative purposes.