Student flows: post-initial higher education coursework programmes [EIP 04/02]

Based on unpublished data from DEST’s higher education statistics, this report analyses student progress through publicly funded post-initial coursework-based higher education programmes in Australia, for students commencing study in either 1997 or 1998. The programmes included master’s, postgraduate diploma, graduate certificate and bachelor’s (second degree). Five types of status were accorded to students in the study: completed, deferred, withdrawn, continuing, or unknown outcome. The primary aim of the analysis was to find a means of predicting completion in any given student. At the end of the observation period (end of 2001) each student had either completed their course, withdrawn from it or the outcome was unknown. For the 1997 cohort, the completion rates were: Master’s – 54%; Postgraduate Diploma – 61%; Graduate Certificate – 64%; and Second Bachelor’s Degree – 44%.

A number of trends were noted. Students are at a higher risk of withdrawing from their course early in their candidature. Males are more likely to complete postgraduate diplomas and graduate certificates, but females are more likely to complete second bachelor’s degrees. Older students are more likely to complete master’s courses and second bachelor’s degrees, but   younger students are more likely to complete postgraduate diplomas and graduate certificates. Students with a disability or an Indigenous background are less likely to complete and more likely to withdraw early. Recent migrants have higher chances of completion than Australian-born students at all course levels except the graduate certificate. Full-time students are more likely to complete their courses than part-time students. These findings have been used to construct models for predicting the probability of completion or withdrawal for a student with a given set of characteristics and undertaking a particular course.

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